Landslide susceptibility zonation method based on C5.0 decision tree and K-means cluster algorithms to improve the efficiency of risk management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zizheng Guo  Yu Shi  Faming Huang  Xuanmei Fan  Jinsong Huang 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):243-261

Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices.  相似文献   

我国中东部平原地区临界气温条件下降水相态判别分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈双  谌芸  何立富  郭云谦 《气象》2019,45(8):1037-1051

基于2001—2013年地面观测和探空资料,对地面气温位于0～2℃(以下称临界气温)我国降雪的时空分布及其与降雨的垂直热力特征进行了研究,引入了决策树判别方法对上述条件下雪和雨进行了判别分析,结果表明:临界气温下降雪出现频率总体高于降雨、雨夹雪出现频率,且在我国华北南部至江南北部的中东部地区分布较多,年均可达7.69～15.38站次;临界气温下,降水相态为雨或雪对应的平均温度廓线最大差异位于650 hPa附近,且地面气温较低时,平均温度差异更明显,平均湿度廓线差异则主要位于低层,且在地面气温较高时,平均湿度差异更明显;临界气温下,降水相态为雨时,地面上空存在暖层样本占比,较降水相态为雪时更高,且降雨时暖层主要位于中层,降雪时暖层则主要位于低层,降雨时其暖层强度显著大于降雪时暖层强度;在临界气温下雨雪判别分析中,地面气温能显著提升判别准确率,湿球温度能在一定程度上提升判别准确率,基于云顶温度、中层融化参数、低层湿球温度构建的决策树判别模型,判别准确率达到91.86%,能较好地解决临界气温下雨和雪的判别问题。  相似文献   

气象因子对半冬性小麦灌浆速度的影响效应研究     

信志红  郭建平  谭凯炎  张利华  孙义  杨荣光 《气象》2019,45(12):1736-1746

选用黄淮海冬麦区4个半冬性小麦品种郯麦98、山农18、徐麦33、皖麦52为试验材料,通过分期播种试验,利用方差分析、相关分析、逐步回归和通径分析等方法,分析半冬性小麦籽粒灌浆速度变化趋势和气象因子对灌浆速度的影响。结果表明,正常播期冬小麦灌浆速度波动性最小、千粒重最大,迟播10 d冬小麦灌浆速度波动性最大、千粒重最小;华北区品种郯麦98灌浆速度表现最稳定、千粒重最高,而黄淮区品种皖麦52灌浆速度最大;半冬性小麦灌浆持续期为35～39 d;南北气候差异是影响各品种冬小麦灌浆速度不同的原因之一。半冬性小麦各播期灌浆速度的变化趋势一致,灌浆速度变化与相关显著气象因子的变化规律相符合;灌浆速度峰值期一般出现在开花后15～25 d,迟播冬小麦最大灌浆速度出现时间较对照处理提前,不利于提高粒重;气温条件对冬小麦灌浆速度影响显著,其中最高气温要素是影响不同播期品种灌浆速度的共有关键因子。通径分析表明,最高气温对灌浆速度的作用由自身的直接效应决定,而日照时数与最低气温对灌浆速度的作用与间接效应一致;最高气温平均值对灌浆速度的影响最重要,日照时数和最低气温平均值对灌浆速度的影响较弱;最高和最低气温平均值、日照时数均为灌浆速度的限制因子,其中最高气温平均值对灌浆速度变化的决策作用最大。  相似文献   

Explicit integration of a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yue Zhang  Annan Zhou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(17):2353-2382

An adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme is developed for a porosity‐dependent hydro‐mechanical model for unsaturated soils. The model is referred to as the modified σ –Θ model in this paper, which features the employment of the subloading surface plasticity and the stress–saturation approach. On numerical aspects, convex/nonconvex subloading surfaces in the σ –Θ space may result in incorrect loading–unloading decisions during the integration. A new loading–unloading decision method is developed here to solve the problem and then embedded into the explicit integration scheme for the modified σ –Θ model. In addition, to enhance the accuracy of the explicit integration, local errors from both hydraulic and mechanical components are included in the error control for each substep. A drift correction method is also developed to ensure the state point lies on the subloading surface in the σ –Θ space within a set error level. The performance of the loading–unloading decision method for the modified σ –Θ model is discussed through comparing it with the conventional loading–unloading decision method. The importance of involving the hydraulic component in the error control is also demonstrated. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed adaptive substepping explicit integration scheme for the modified p–Θ model are also studied via several numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling and observation of hedgerow transpiration effect on water balance components at the hillslope scale in Brittany     

Z. Thomas  R. Ghazavi  P. Merot  A. Granier 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4001-4014

Vegetation has a major influence on the water and energy balance of the earth's surface. In the last century, human activities have modified land use, inducing a consequent change in albedo and potential evapotranspiration. Linear vegetation structures (hedgerows, shelterbelts, open woodland, etc) were particularly abundant but have declined considerably over the past several decades. In this context, it is important to quantify their effect on water and energy balance both on a global scale (climate change and weather prediction) and on a local scale (soil column, hillslope and watershed). The main objective of this study was to quantify the effect of hedgerows on the water cycle by evaluating spatial and temporal variations of water balance components of a hillslope crossed by a hedgerow. Water flow simulation was performed using Hydrus‐2D to emphasize the importance of transpiration in the water balance and to evaluate water extraction from groundwater. Model validation was performed by comparing simulated and observed soil matrix potentials and groundwater levels. Hedgerow transpiration was calculated from sap flow measurements of four trees. Water balance components calculated with a one‐dimensional water balance equation were compared with simulations. Simulation runs with and without tree root uptake underlined the effect of hedgerow transpiration, increasing capillary rise and decreasing drainage. Results demonstrated that the spatial and temporal variability of water balance components was related to the hedgerow presence as well as to the meteorological context. The relations between transpiration, groundwater proximity and soil‐water availability determined the way in which water balance components were affected. Increased capillary rise and decreased drainage near hedges were related to the high transpiration of trees identified in this study. Transpiration reached twice the potential evapotranspiration when groundwater level and precipitation amounts were high. Water balance analysis showed that transpiration was a substantial component, representing 40% of total water output. These results may offer support for improving hydrological models by including the effect of land use and land cover on hydrological processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

地图数据库中的结构化河网及其自动建立   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杜清运 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1988,(2)

本文提出了一种基于河段的结构化河网,讨论了这种结构化河网的自动建立过程,主要包括两个结构索引即线索树结构索引及层次结构索引的自动产生;根据包含以上两个索引的结构化河网,提供了若干检索函数,作为地图数据库中结构处理时结构信息的提取手段。  相似文献   

Influence of multipurpose trees on agricultural crops in arid regions of Haryana, India   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sunil Puri  Bangarwa K. S.  Shambhu Singh 《Journal of Arid Environments》1995,30(4)

The effects of multipurpose trees on the productivity of agricultural crops were studied in the arid regions of Haryana. In one of the experiments, wheat was grown on irrigated farms having scattered trees ofDalbergia sissoo, Azadirachta indica, Prosopis cinerariaandAcacia nilotica. Data of wheat yield for each tree species at different distances (1, 3, 5, and 7 m) and four directions (East, West, North and South) from the tree bases and control (no trees) were collected. Results indicate thatAzadirachta indicaandProsopis cinerariadid not produce any significant difference in the wheat yield while the other two species (Dalbergia sissooandAcacia nilotica) gave a reduction in yield.A. niloticahad a more significant and prominent effect and a reduction of 40 to 60 % wheat yield was observed.Dalbergia sissooreduced yield by 4 to 30 % but the reduction was only up to a distance of 3 m. In general, the impact of trees on productivity was observed up to 3 m distance and there was little, if any, impact up to 5 m and almost no impact at 7 m.In another experiment,D. sissoo(18-years-old) was raised as windbreak and productivity of cotton was assessed. The tree belt reduced the wind speed by 15 to 45 %, depending on season and wind speed. The influence of trees on cotton yield was observed to be negative up to 2H (36 m), where H is tree height, i.e. 18 m. Cotton productivity was observed to be maximum between 2H and 5H. Depending upon orientation of tree belt, the increase in cotton yield was found to be 4 to 10 %.  相似文献   

沙漠边缘地区果园幼树越冬技术措施的研究     

刘育昌 《中国沙漠》1995,15(4):414-418

调控２年生苹果树灌水次数、时期和土壤管理试验，使７月下旬１００ｃｍ上层含水量为土壤田间持水量的５０％左右，促进幼树根系向下生长、新梢适时停止生长、提早进入休眠准备；１０月上旬冬灌，下旬耕翻土壤、提高地温和降低冻土厚度，下旬耕翻土壤、提高地温和降低冻土厚度，使苹果幼树正常越冬率由对照的５２．４％提高到９７．１％，差异极显著。  相似文献   

专题制图决策支持系统的设计     

郭庆胜 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1993,(Z1)

专题制图中有很多决策问题,如何建立一个专题制图决策支持系统是本文要讨论的问题。本文对下面的问题进行了讨论和介绍;专题制图决策支持系统的总体设计、子系统间的信息交换、地图表达手段、数据处理方法等。  相似文献   

Utility Efficient Frontier: An Application in the Oil and Gas Industry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mansoor Hamood Al-Harthy 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(4):305-312

Current practice shows that the use of portfolio and utility theory is very low among petroleum companies. This article advocates the use of both portfolio theory and utility theory as decision-making tools to improve performance of oil and gas companies. We introduce a model that can be practically used and applied in the oil and gas industry. This model generates an optimized, efficient portfolio and, at the same time, enables the decision maker to incorporate his risk attitude and policy. This can only be done by combining both the portfolio theory and utility theory through an approach called the utility mean-variance model. A typical oil portfolio optimization problem is investigated by applying both portfolio and utility theories. Through the utility mean-variance model, an efficient frontier that captures decision maker risk attitude is achieved.  相似文献